Jorge G. Castañeda
29 de sepetiembre.
CIUDAD DE MÉXICO – A principios de septiembre, las mayores empresas de Colombia asombraron a todo el mundo con su apoyo incondicional al Presidente del país, Álvaro Uribe, en su conflicto cada vez más profundo con Venezuela. Si perdían el enorme mercado de exportación contiguo... pues sería mala suerte, simplemente.
Por primera vez, los exportadores colombianos de casi todo lo que Venezuela compra, desde papel higiénico hasta gasolina, fruta y hortalizas, leche y carne, dieron luz verde a su Presidente para que hiciera frente al Presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, en lugar de seguir ofreciendo la otra mejilla, como habían estado presionándolo para que lo hiciera en los ocho años transcurridos desde que Uribe ocupó su cargo por primera vez.
Venezuela había pasado a ser una magnífica oportunidad comercial para los exportadores colombianos, pues ya no produce prácticamente nada (exceptuado el petróleo), tiene un tipo de cambio oficial enormemente subvencionado y cuenta con enormes sumas de petrodólares con los que puede comprar todo lo imaginable. Mientras las autoridades de Colombia se
veían obligadas a afrontar los frecuentes insultos de Chávez, sus intervenciones en los asuntos internos de Colombia, sus compras de armas en gran escala y sus rabietas diplomáticas, la comunidad comercial obtenía beneficios y presionaba al Gobierno para que llegara a avenencias. Hasta ahora, eso es lo que había hecho el Gobierno.
La vacilación de la comunidad comercial de Colombia ante la necesidad de hacer frente a Chávez podría resultar ser el último obstáculo que quedara y que Uribe, los Estados Unidos y unas cuantas democracias latinoamericanas hubieran de eliminar antes de hacer frente a Chávez. Hace mucho que deberían haberlo hecho
El teniente coronel venezolano ha brindado repetidas veces refugio, armas, apoyo diplomático y financiación a las
guerrillas de las FARC que luchan para derribar al Gobierno de Colombia. Se ha lanzado a hacer compras inmensas de armas a Rusia, Ucrania y Belarús, las más recientes de ellas de tanques, aviones de combate y un submarino. Ha adoptado medidas cada vez más contundentes contra los disidentes, la oposición y las libertades fundamentales de Venezuela,
además de expropiar empresas sin la correspondiente compensación.
Al apoyar sistemáticamente a sus aliados en otros países latinoamericanos, desde Bolivia y la Argentina hasta Honduras y El Salvador, además del Perú, Nicaragua, Ecuador y la oposición de México, Chávez ha polarizado todo el continente latinoamericano del mismo modo que su propia sociedad. Además, ha implicado a Venezuela en conflictos mundiales casi en los antípodas, al aliarse con el régimen iraní y volverse uno de sus bastiones.
Ante todo ello, nadie ha intentado aún parar a Chávez. Más aún: el propio Uribe parece sentir la tentación de seguir buscando avenencias. Además de proteger los intereses comerciales colombianos, intenta enmendar la constitución de su país para poder presentarse a las elecciones por tercera vez: lo mismo exactamente que ha hecho Chávez en Venezuela y lo que todos sus aliados en Bolivia, Ecuador, la Argentina (indirectamente) y Nicaragua han intentado conseguir.
Uribe podría aún echarse atrás, si bien se está quedando con muy pocas posibilidades de rehusar la reelección después de todo lo que sus partidarios han hecho para permitirla, pero también podría estar buscando un acuerdo con los EE.UU. que podría propiciar al final la decisión de contener a Chávez. La mayoría de los colombianos desearían que el inmensamente popular Uribe permaneciera en su cargo durante cuatro años más, pero muchos en el extranjero no, ya sea
porque su segunda reelección socavaría los argumentos contra otros decididos a perpetuarse en el poder o porque
complicaría sus relaciones con Colombia.
El Presidente de los EE.UU., Barack Obama, forma parte de esas dos categorías. No puede criticar la presidencia eterna de Chávez sin dañar a Uribe y, si los críticos estadounidenses retratan a Uribe como un perpetuo violador de los derechos humanos decidido a permanecer en el poder indefinidamente, a Obama le resultará casi imposible conseguir la renovación en el Congreso del Plan Colombia, el programa de contrainsurgencia y lucha contra las drogas lanzado por Bill Clinton en 1999, por no hablar de la ratificación del acuerdo de libre comercio de Colombia con los EE.UU.
A Uribe no le resultaría fácil resistirse a una petición directa por parte de Obama para que se retirara después de dos mandatos. Por esa razón, podría haber una base para un acuerdo: Uribe se ofrece a no volver a presentarse como candidato, si Obama empieza a hacer frente a Chávez como debe hacerse: diplomática, política, ideológicamente y en el tribunal de la opinión mundial y del derecho internacional. Sólo con un respaldo activo de los EE.UU. puede Colombia hacer valer su posición en la Organización de Estados Americanos (donde actualmente perdería), las Naciones Unidas (donde podría ganar) y ante los amigos y aliados de Europa y Asia (donde sin duda tendría todas las de ganar).
La acusación contra Chávez es sólida, si se presenta adecuadamente: como una serie de de repetidas violaciones de compromisos y pactos internos, regionales e internacionales firmados y ratificados por Venezuela.. Ya consistan sus violaciones en cerrar cadenas de televisión, encarcelar y exiliar a oponentes, armar a guerrillas en países vecinos, provocar una carrera de armamentos en la región o coquetear con el programa de enriquecimiento nuclear del Irán, se puede demostrarlas y denunciarlas.
Si Colombia y Obama actúan de ese modo, sus aliados potenciales en el resto del hemisferio podrían perder su temor a quedarse solos e indefensos. Países como México, el Perú, Chile tras sus elecciones de diciembre, Costa Rica y la República Dominicana están, todos ellos, preocupados porque, si hacen frente a Chávez, no sólo perderán, en algunos casos, sus dádivas, sino que, además, provocarán su intromisión en la política interna de su país, pero, si Obama demuestra que se toma en serio esa cuestión y se propone aplicar una política de contención, esas naciones probablemente responderían favorablemente.
Dejar que la situación derive hacia una mayor confrontación no es una política sostenible para Colombia, los EE.UU. o el resto de América Latina. Semejante rumbo permitiría a Venezuela elegir el próximo conflicto, con lo que se aplazaría una confrontación hasta que el deterioro de las circunstancias vuelva inevitable y más peligroso el conflicto. Ha llegado el momento de que Obama emule a la comunidad comercial de Colombia y deje de ofrecer la otra mejilla.
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Jorge G. Castañeda, ex ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de México (2000-2003), es profesor distinguido mundial de Ciencia Política y Estudios Latinoamericanos en la Universidad de Nueva York.
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September 29, 2009
Enviado por Emilio Nouel
It's Time to Confront Hugo Chavez
By Jorge Castaneda
In early September, Colombia's biggest businesses surprised everyone by declaring their wholehearted support for the country's president, Alvaro Uribe, in his deepening conflict with Venezuela. If they lost the huge export market next door, well, that would simply be too bad.For the first time, Colombian exporters of just about everything Venezuela buys, from toilet paper to gasoline, fruit and vegetables, and milk and meat, gave their president the green light to confront Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, instead of continuing to turn the other cheek, as they had been pressing him to do in the eight years since Uribe took office.Venezuela had become a magnificent business opportunity for Colombian exporters. It produces next to nothing anymore (except oil), has a highly subsidised official exchange rate, and wields huge sums of petrodollars with which it can buy up everything in sight. While Colombia's authorities were forced to deal with Chávez's frequent insults, interventions in Colombia's internal affairs, massive arms purchases, and diplomatic tantrums, the business community profited and pressured the government to compromise. Until now, that is what the government did. The hesitation of Colombia's business community to confront Chávez may prove to have been the last remaining hurdle for Uribe, the United States, and ahandful of Latin American democracies to clear before they could face up to Chávez. It is past time that they did.The Venezuelan lieutenant colonel has repeatedly provided sanctuary, arms, diplomatic support, and financing to the FARC guerrillas fighting to overthrow the Colombian government. He has engaged in immense arms purchases from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, most recently including tanks, fighter planes, and a submarine. He has increasingly clamped down on dissent, the opposition, and basic freedoms in Venezuela, as well as expropriating business concerns without compensation.By systematically supporting his allies in other Latin America countries, from Bolivia and Argentina to Honduras and El Salvador, and including Peru, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Mexico's opposition, Chávez has polarised the entire Latin American continent in the same way that he has his own society. Moreover, he has implicated Venezuela in global conflicts half a world away, by allying himself with the Iranian regime and becoming one of its bulwarks.In the face of all this, no one has yet attempted to stop Chávez. What's more, Uribe himself seems tempted to continue to search for compromises. Aside from protecting Colombian business interests, he seeks to amend his Colombia's constitution so that he can run for a third term in office - exactly what Chávez has done in Venezuela, and what his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina (indirectly), and Nicaragua have all sought.Uribe may still back down, though he is leaving himself precious little wiggle room to decline reelection after all that his supporters have done to allow it. But he could also be searching for an accommodation with the US that might finally lead to containing Chávez.Most Colombians would like the immensely popular Uribe to stay in office for another four years. But many abroad would not, either because his second reelection would undercut arguments against others intent on perpetuating themselves in power, or because it would complicate their relations with Colombia.US President Barack Obama finds himself in both of these categories. He cannot criticise Chávez's eternal presidency without hitting Uribe; and it will prove almost impossible for Obama to win congressional renewal of Plan Colombia, the drug-enforcement and counter-insurgency programme launched by Bill Clinton in 1999, let alone ratification of Colombia's free-trade agreement with the US, if Uribe can be portrayed by American critics as a perpetual violator of human rights intent on remaining in power indefinitely.It would not be easy for Uribe to resist a direct appeal from Obama to step down after two terms. For that reason, there might be a basis for a deal: Uribe offers not to run again if Obama begins to confront Chávez the way he should be opposed: diplomatically, politically, ideologically, and in the court of world opinion and international law. Only with active US backing can Colombia take its case to the Organisation of American States (where it would currently lose), to the United Nations (where it might win), and to friends and allies in Europe and Asia (where it would undoubtedly have the upper hand).The case against Chávez is solid if it is properly presented - as a series of repeated violations of domestic, regional, and international commitments and covenants signed and ratified by Venezuela. Whether these violations involve shutting down TV stations, imprisoning and exiling opponents, arming guerrillas in neighbouring countries, provoking an arms race in the region, or flirting with Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, they all can be proved and denounced.If Colombia and Obama proceed in this fashion, their potential allies in the rest of the hemisphere might lose their fears about being left hanging out to dry. Countries like Mexico, Peru, Chile after its December election, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic all worry that if they confront Chávez, they will not only, in certain cases, lose his largesse, but also provoke him into meddling in their domestic politics. But if Obama shows that he takes the issue seriously and intends to pursue a policy of containment, these nations would probably respond favourably.Letting matters drift towards greater confrontation is not a sustainable policy for Colombia, the US, or the rest of Latin America. Such a course would allow Venezuela to choose the next conflict, postponing a showdown until deteriorating circumstances make conflict both inevitable and more dangerous. It is now time for Obama to emulate Colombia's business community and stop turning the other cheek.
The writer, former foreign minister of Mexico (2000-2003), is a global distinguished professor of politics and Latin American Studies at New York University.
© Project Syndicate, 2009
In early September, Colombia's biggest businesses surprised everyone by declaring their wholehearted support for the country's president, Alvaro Uribe, in his deepening conflict with Venezuela. If they lost the huge export market next door, well, that would simply be too bad.For the first time, Colombian exporters of just about everything Venezuela buys, from toilet paper to gasoline, fruit and vegetables, and milk and meat, gave their president the green light to confront Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, instead of continuing to turn the other cheek, as they had been pressing him to do in the eight years since Uribe took office.Venezuela had become a magnificent business opportunity for Colombian exporters. It produces next to nothing anymore (except oil), has a highly subsidised official exchange rate, and wields huge sums of petrodollars with which it can buy up everything in sight. While Colombia's authorities were forced to deal with Chávez's frequent insults, interventions in Colombia's internal affairs, massive arms purchases, and diplomatic tantrums, the business community profited and pressured the government to compromise. Until now, that is what the government did. The hesitation of Colombia's business community to confront Chávez may prove to have been the last remaining hurdle for Uribe, the United States, and ahandful of Latin American democracies to clear before they could face up to Chávez. It is past time that they did.The Venezuelan lieutenant colonel has repeatedly provided sanctuary, arms, diplomatic support, and financing to the FARC guerrillas fighting to overthrow the Colombian government. He has engaged in immense arms purchases from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, most recently including tanks, fighter planes, and a submarine. He has increasingly clamped down on dissent, the opposition, and basic freedoms in Venezuela, as well as expropriating business concerns without compensation.By systematically supporting his allies in other Latin America countries, from Bolivia and Argentina to Honduras and El Salvador, and including Peru, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Mexico's opposition, Chávez has polarised the entire Latin American continent in the same way that he has his own society. Moreover, he has implicated Venezuela in global conflicts half a world away, by allying himself with the Iranian regime and becoming one of its bulwarks.In the face of all this, no one has yet attempted to stop Chávez. What's more, Uribe himself seems tempted to continue to search for compromises. Aside from protecting Colombian business interests, he seeks to amend his Colombia's constitution so that he can run for a third term in office - exactly what Chávez has done in Venezuela, and what his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina (indirectly), and Nicaragua have all sought.Uribe may still back down, though he is leaving himself precious little wiggle room to decline reelection after all that his supporters have done to allow it. But he could also be searching for an accommodation with the US that might finally lead to containing Chávez.Most Colombians would like the immensely popular Uribe to stay in office for another four years. But many abroad would not, either because his second reelection would undercut arguments against others intent on perpetuating themselves in power, or because it would complicate their relations with Colombia.US President Barack Obama finds himself in both of these categories. He cannot criticise Chávez's eternal presidency without hitting Uribe; and it will prove almost impossible for Obama to win congressional renewal of Plan Colombia, the drug-enforcement and counter-insurgency programme launched by Bill Clinton in 1999, let alone ratification of Colombia's free-trade agreement with the US, if Uribe can be portrayed by American critics as a perpetual violator of human rights intent on remaining in power indefinitely.It would not be easy for Uribe to resist a direct appeal from Obama to step down after two terms. For that reason, there might be a basis for a deal: Uribe offers not to run again if Obama begins to confront Chávez the way he should be opposed: diplomatically, politically, ideologically, and in the court of world opinion and international law. Only with active US backing can Colombia take its case to the Organisation of American States (where it would currently lose), to the United Nations (where it might win), and to friends and allies in Europe and Asia (where it would undoubtedly have the upper hand).The case against Chávez is solid if it is properly presented - as a series of repeated violations of domestic, regional, and international commitments and covenants signed and ratified by Venezuela. Whether these violations involve shutting down TV stations, imprisoning and exiling opponents, arming guerrillas in neighbouring countries, provoking an arms race in the region, or flirting with Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, they all can be proved and denounced.If Colombia and Obama proceed in this fashion, their potential allies in the rest of the hemisphere might lose their fears about being left hanging out to dry. Countries like Mexico, Peru, Chile after its December election, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic all worry that if they confront Chávez, they will not only, in certain cases, lose his largesse, but also provoke him into meddling in their domestic politics. But if Obama shows that he takes the issue seriously and intends to pursue a policy of containment, these nations would probably respond favourably.Letting matters drift towards greater confrontation is not a sustainable policy for Colombia, the US, or the rest of Latin America. Such a course would allow Venezuela to choose the next conflict, postponing a showdown until deteriorating circumstances make conflict both inevitable and more dangerous. It is now time for Obama to emulate Colombia's business community and stop turning the other cheek.
The writer, former foreign minister of Mexico (2000-2003), is a global distinguished professor of politics and Latin American Studies at New York University.
© Project Syndicate, 2009
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